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National Population Summit

The Age, Herald Sun and Sunday Herald Sun - 1 Mar 2002

Dear Sir/Madam

The Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs strongly supports informed discussion of our population future. The recent National Population Summit in Melbourne, however, highlighted some common misconceptions about population and the impact of an older population.

Your readers might wish to reflect on the implications on some of the population levels put forward at the Summit. For example, to reach a population of 50 million by mid-century we would immediately have to bring to Australia 460,000 people net each year.

To begin to stabilise at that level we would then have to remove 100,000 people net in 2048, falling to 30,000 in the following year. On the other hand, to achieve a population even of today's size by mid-century would require an immediate policy of zero net migration. That is, one in and one out.

Australia's fertility rate (currently 1.75) fell below the replacement level of 2.1 in the mid-to-late 1970s and has been declining ever since. Based on current population dynamics in fertility, mortality and immigration, Australia's population is likely to reach 25 million by mid-century, when around 25 per cent of the population will be aged 65 and over.

By comparison, Japan has a fertility rate of 1.4 and around 17 per cent of its current population of about 127 million over the age of 65 years. Japan's population is projected to decline to around 123 million by 2025 and to 101 million by 2050, with the proportion of the population over 65 years of age increasing to 28 per cent by 2025 and to 34 per cent by 2050.

Australian governments continue to take measures to ensure that, as labour force growth slows, the standard of living can continue to grow. In particular, Australia faces low rates of future public expenditure growth compared to other developed nations, and, due to improved superannuation savings and a means-tested age pension, an expanding private pension asset base.

In addition, policies which encourage increases in the number of women and older Australians in the labour force and rising incomes will help offset likely growing health and welfare expenditure.

Australia has a strongly performing Migration Program. The 2001-2002 Migration Program (excluding 12,000 new places under the Humanitarian Program) will deliver 93,000 people, 58 per cent of which will be in the Skill Stream. This is the largest in a decade and the Skill Stream the largest on record. Skilled migrants make particularly strong contributions to Australia's economy.

Minister Ruddock's statement to the Summit said that the Government's policy priorities for population include a need to continue to:

  • Pursue family friendly policies that will help to minimise further falls in fertility;
  • Encourage more older workers to remain in the workforce longer;
  • Enhance our skilled migrant intake and encourage a better dispersal of this; and,
  • Assist improved environmental management practices and behaviour.

Further details on each of the above priorities are available on the websites of relevant Commonwealth agencies.

Yours sincerely,

Stewart Foster
Director Public Affairs
Dept of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs