Fact Sheet 15 - Population Projections
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At December 2008, the estimated Australian resident population was 21.6 million, an increase of 406 100 people (or 1.9 percent) since December2007. This population growth rate was higher than the world population growth rate of 1.2 per cent over the same period.
Estimating population Growth
Based on the following series of assumptions about Australia's future fertility, life expectancy and net overseas migration, Australia's population is projected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to grow to between 30.9 million and 42.5 million in 2056. Under the ABS medium (Series B) assumptions, Australia's population would increase from 35.5 million in 2056 to 44.7 million in 2101.
Source: Population Projections, Australia 2004 to 2011 (ABS Cat. 3222.0)
The effect of these assumptions on Australia’s estimated population are shown below.
Source: Population Projections, Australia 2004 to 2011 (ABS Cat. 3222.0)
Fertility
Australia's total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would bear over her lifetime, fell strongly from 3.6 children per woman in 1961 to reach 1.9 by 1979 and continued to fall steadily for the next 20 years. This downward trend in fertility rates has been seen in almost every developed country as well as many developing nations. However, recently the TFR has been relatively stable, varying between 1.73 and 1.76 between 1998 and 2003. In 2002-03 it reached a low of 1.72 children per woman, which is the lowest on record. It has since increased. In 2007 the TFR was 1.93 babies per woman, the highest level since 1981 when the TFR was 1.94.
Few developed countries have a fertility rate as high as Australia with the USA being the most notable exception with a TFR around the replacement rate of 2.1.
Life Expectancy
Since the 1960s life expectancy in Australia and in other countries has increased significantly. Between 1996 and 2007 life expectancy at birth has increased by around three years for males and females, reaching 79 years for males and 84 years for females in 2007.
Net Overseas Migration (NOM)
Net overseas migration is the addition (or loss) to the population of Australia arising from the difference between those leaving permanently or on a long–term (12 months or longer) basis and those arriving permanently or long–term. The annual net overseas migration figure is also adjusted to account for people who change their travel intentions, for example, people who come to Australia intending to stay short-term (less than 12 months) but who actually stay longer, or vice versa.
NOM can fluctuate considerably from year to year, but has been steadily increasing in recent years. In the year ending December 2008 NOM estimate was 253 400 persons – the highest figure on record. Currently NOM contributes to around 60.0 percent of Australia's growth.
Composition
The ABS estimated resident population (ERP) at June 2008 was 21.4 million people with 25.0 percent of people born overseas. The proportion of immigrants born in North–West, Southern and Eastern Europe are in decline, with each region falling 0.8 percent from 1998 to 2008. The proportion of migrants coming from North-East Asia and Southern and Central Asia have increased, with each region up 1.0 percent between 1998 and 2008.
Potential workforce
The potential workforce is the number of people in the population of workforce age, which is usually defined as 15–64 year olds. The actual workforce will depend on the proportion of 15–64 years olds that seek to actively participate in the workforce and those 65 and over who continue to work.
In recent years Australia's potential workforce has been growing by over 200 000 people each year. At June 2009, the number of people of workforce age was 17.5 million people (65.3 percent of the population).
The three different ABS series show quite different outcomes in the number of people aged 15 – 64 (see figure below). For example series A shows continued strong growth in Australia’s potential workforce to 2101, whereas series C shows very little growth at all.
People not in the workforce are generally less likely to be paying taxes and are more likely to be dependent on pensions and other forms of government support. Therefore another useful measure is to compare Australia’s potential workforce against Australia’s total population. This analysis shows similar trends for all three ABS series, with the proportion in the 15-64 year age-range steadily declining from 67 per cent in 2008 to between 59 and 61 per cent in 2051 and between 56 and 59 per cent in 2101.
Population Ageing and Labour Future
Population projections for Australia show that the ageing of our population will continue. This is the inevitable result of fertility remaining at low levels over a long period and increasing life expectancy.
Over the coming years, the population is projected to age progressively with the median age of 37.0 years in 2008 increasing to between 41.9 years and 45.2 years in 2056 for series A and C.
Similarly, the proportion of older Australians is expected to increase over the coming years. In 2008, around 13 per cent of Australia's population was aged 65 and over, by 2056 this figure is expected to be between 23 and 25 per cent (series B and C).
Extensive research has concluded that immigration beyond current levels would have a diminishing impact on retarding the ageing of the population. This reflects ageing being a gradual process and that most migrants who enter Australia would themselves be part of the aged population in 30 to 40 years time.
Research shows that some time after 2010 there will be more Australians retiring from the labour force than joining the labour force. This is because of the ageing of the baby boom generation and because long-term fertility rates remain below a replacement level. Immigration currently provides 60 percent of our population growth, but within the next few years it will be the only source of net labour force growth in Australia.
We need to ensure that a growing population does not have a negative impact on our natural environment, or place stress on our infrastructure and services.
The department is considering development of a Long Term Immigration Planning Framework that will inform and guide our future migration program decisions while maximising the benefits for Australia.
For further information about population ageing and Australia's labour future, please refer to Demographic and labour Supply Future's for Australia (2008).
Further information is available on the department's web site.
See: www.immi.gov.au
The department also operates a national telephone service inquiry line.
Telephone: 131 881
Hours of operation: Monday to Friday from 9 am to 4 pm (recorded information available outside these hours) for the cost of a local call anywhere in Australia.
Fact Sheet 15. Produced by the National Communications Branch, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
Last reviewed 23 September 2009.
© Commonwealth of Australia 2009.